Sensational Saturday!!!! [Highlighting and bolding emphasis added.] Incipient aggression in psychiatric or forensic settings: threat behaviour escalation and prediction Paper: [Published: 12 Sept. 2025] Kim, M., & Potegal, M. (2025). Incipient aggression in psychiatric or forensic settings: threat behaviour escalation and prediction. Academia Mental Health and Well-Being, 2(3). https://doi.org/10.20935/MHealthWellB7896 Abstract Aggression toward staff by individuals in psychiatric and forensic populations remains a persistent risk, often preceded by observable behavioural cues that are overlooked in formal risk frameworks. While structured assessment tools typically rely on historical or diagnostic factors, they lack sensitivity to the short-term, escalating behaviours that can signal imminent assault. Drawing from ethology, clinical observation, and forensic psychology, this paper synthesises evidence on non-verbal indicators of incipient aggression—such as gaze fixation, postural changes, and spatial intrusion. Particular attention is given to the ‘square-up’ posture as an illustrative example of a high-salience, visually recognizable signal. We argue for the development of a behavioural risk hierarchy that captures the sequential nature of increasing threat, offering a more dynamic and context-sensitive approach to risk assessment. Integrating findings from comparative aggression studies, observational research, and clinical practice, this paper outlines a conceptual framework for interpreting early threat behaviours and highlights opportunities for earlier interventions. Keywords: aggression, risk assessment, behavioural cues, threat escalation, violence prevention Example table [in notes]: Table 1 Observable Behavioural Cues: Evidence on non-verbal indicators of incipient aggression # Observable Behavioural Cue ​ Paper's Description of the Cue ​ 1 Fixed Gaze Sustained, direct eye contact often functions as a challenge or dominance display, signaling rising threat. ​ 2 Pacing May signal rising internal tension or agitation, depending on the individual's baseline behavior and context. ​ 3 Clenched Fists Indicates heightened arousal or frustration, often preceding physical aggression. ​ 4 Postural Shifts Sudden changes in stance or body rigidity can signal escalating threat. ​ 5 Spatial Intrusion Invasion of personal space or blocking exits is a high-salience indicator of aggression. ​ 6 Square-Up Posture Characterized by squared shoulders, frontal torso alignment, prolonged eye contact, and close proximity, signaling imminent risk. ​ 7 Verbal Hostility Erratic or hostile verbal expressions may indicate emotional dysregulation or deliberate intimidation. ​ 8 Erratic Movements Unpredictable physical actions that may signal agitation or loss of behavioral control. ​ 9 Blocking Exits Physically obstructing pathways or personal space, often signaling dominance or aggression. ​ 10 Forward Lunging Sudden movement toward another person, often preceding violent episodes. ​ More analyses and tables in attached paper and notes. Have a terrific day! Mike Michael Brave (651) 248-2809 brave@laaw.com <mailto:brave@laaw.com>