What the future will look like - Insights of Dr. Michael Osterholm - Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Univ. of Minn.
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
I think that matches the projection put out by CDC a month ago when they were showing the "flatten the curve" graphic.
Eventually everyone gets exposed, 50% get it but have no symptoms, 40-50% have bad cold or flu-like symptoms, 10% get seriously ill and about 1% die.
Flattening the curve doesn't change the totals, just spreads it out over a longer time so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
The problem is the economy crashes worldwide.
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
And US fatality rate has been closer to 2% if stats on news are accurate.
Pete Haskel
pete@ texasmunicipallawyers.com
214-577-9635 cell
On Apr 3, 2020, at 12:22 PM, Brett Kriger bkriger@lma.org wrote:
I think that matches the projection put out by CDC a month ago when they were showing the "flatten the curve" graphic.
Eventually everyone gets exposed, 50% get it but have no symptoms, 40-50% have bad cold or flu-like symptoms, 10% get seriously ill and about 1% die.
Flattening the curve doesn't change the totals, just spreads it out over a longer time so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
The problem is the economy crashes worldwide.
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org
Closer to 2.4-2.5%.
Sent from my iPhone
Stephen M. Hines
Senior Assistant City Attorney
Office of the City Attorney
City of Garland
P.O. Box 469002x-apple-data-detectors://0/1
Garland, Texas 75046-9002x-apple-data-detectors://0/1
Telephone: (972) 205-2380tel:(972)%20205-2380
Facsimile: (972) 205-2389tel:(972)%20205-2389
Cellular: (972) 743-9564
[X]
[X]
“Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.” – Pres. Theodore Roosevelt
On Apr 3, 2020, at 11:31, Pete Haskel pete@texasmunicipallawyers.com wrote:
And US fatality rate has been closer to 2% if stats on news are accurate.
Pete Haskel
pete@ texasmunicipallawyers.com
214-577-9635 cell
On Apr 3, 2020, at 12:22 PM, Brett Kriger bkriger@lma.org wrote:
I think that matches the projection put out by CDC a month ago when they were showing the "flatten the curve" graphic.
Eventually everyone gets exposed, 50% get it but have no symptoms, 40-50% have bad cold or flu-like symptoms, 10% get seriously ill and about 1% die.
Flattening the curve doesn't change the totals, just spreads it out over a longer time so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
The problem is the economy crashes worldwide.
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org
Computing a fatality rate has two problems:
- current reporting is percentage of those who have been tested who die versus total population after everyone is assumed to have been exposed. So if 100 are tested and of those 3 die, the rate is 3%. If another 200 have it but aren't tested, the 3 that die becomes 1%.
- Louisiana doctors are reporting that many who die are dying with COVID19 butt not of COVID19.
Get Outlook for Androidhttps://aka.ms/ghei36
From: Hines, Stephen SHines@garlandtx.gov
Sent: Friday, April 3, 2020 11:32:31 AM
To: Pete Haskel pete@texasmunicipallawyers.com
Cc: Brett Kriger bkriger@lma.org; disasterrelief@lists.imla.org disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
Subject: Re: [Disasterrelief] What the future will look like - Insights of Dr. Michael Osterholm - Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Univ. of Minn.
Closer to 2.4-2.5%.
Sent from my iPhone
Stephen M. Hines
Senior Assistant City Attorney
Office of the City Attorney
City of Garland
P.O. Box 469002x-apple-data-detectors://0/1
Garland, Texas 75046-9002x-apple-data-detectors://0/1
Telephone: (972) 205-2380tel:(972)%20205-2380
Facsimile: (972) 205-2389tel:(972)%20205-2389
Cellular: (972) 743-9564
[X]
[X]
“Far and away the best prize that life offers is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.” – Pres. Theodore Roosevelt
On Apr 3, 2020, at 11:31, Pete Haskel pete@texasmunicipallawyers.com wrote:
And US fatality rate has been closer to 2% if stats on news are accurate.
Pete Haskel
pete@ texasmunicipallawyers.com
214-577-9635 cell
On Apr 3, 2020, at 12:22 PM, Brett Kriger bkriger@lma.org wrote:
I think that matches the projection put out by CDC a month ago when they were showing the "flatten the curve" graphic.
Eventually everyone gets exposed, 50% get it but have no symptoms, 40-50% have bad cold or flu-like symptoms, 10% get seriously ill and about 1% die.
Flattening the curve doesn't change the totals, just spreads it out over a longer time so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
The problem is the economy crashes worldwide.
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" don.knight@dallascityhall.com wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org
As we all know statistics can be used to manipulate perceptions. Using State of Washington Statistics as an example King County’s death rate is 6.7% whereas the state’s rate is roughly 4%. Based on a total case load of 6585, the rest of the state, taking out King County, is about the 2.1% nationally. If the virus can be stymied from entering nursing homes and life care facilities the rates may be even lower. As of now in Washington the percentage of deaths for the cohort over 80 is 55% and for those over 60 to age 79 its 37%. So, reducing exposure for those who are older should help to bring down the death rate. Interestingly, 55% of the deaths are of men who contracted the virus and 45% are women, while the infection rate may be lower in men than in women. Chuck
From: Disasterrelief disasterrelief-bounces@lists.imla.org On Behalf Of Pete Haskel
Sent: Friday, April 3, 2020 12:31 PM
To: Brett Kriger bkriger@lma.org
Cc: disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
Subject: Re: [Disasterrelief] What the future will look like - Insights of Dr. Michael Osterholm - Director of Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Univ. of Minn.
And US fatality rate has been closer to 2% if stats on news are accurate.
Pete Haskel
pete@ texasmunicipallawyers.com
214-577-9635 cell
On Apr 3, 2020, at 12:22 PM, Brett Kriger <bkriger@lma.orgmailto:bkriger@lma.org> wrote:
I think that matches the projection put out by CDC a month ago when they were showing the "flatten the curve" graphic.
Eventually everyone gets exposed, 50% get it but have no symptoms, 40-50% have bad cold or flu-like symptoms, 10% get seriously ill and about 1% die.
Flattening the curve doesn't change the totals, just spreads it out over a longer time so as not to overwhelm the medical system.
The problem is the economy crashes worldwide.
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" <don.knight@dallascityhall.commailto:don.knight@dallascityhall.com> wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" <don.knight@dallascityhall.commailto:don.knight@dallascityhall.com> wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
On Apr 3, 2020 11:03 AM, "Knight, Don" <don.knight@dallascityhall.commailto:don.knight@dallascityhall.com> wrote:
Paraphrased to the best of my ability:
Globally only about 10 to 15 percent of people have been infected. This will continue until 50 to 60 percent of the population has been infected and has developed immunity. This is what happened with the Spanish Flu of 1918 which continued to be a problem until 1920 and that is what happen with this disease.
Disclaimer: The above is a summary of what I heard in a live interview, so if may contain mistakes or misunderstandings of what he was trying to communicate.
Don Knight
Disasterrelief mailing list
Disasterrelief@lists.imla.orgmailto:Disasterrelief@lists.imla.org
http://lists.imla.org/mailman/listinfo/disasterrelief_lists.imla.org